DBS Hong Kong real estate industry analyst Qiu Zhuowen said that the impact of Sino-US trade frictions and local social movements on Hong Kong’s economy has begun to emerge, and the unemployment rate has risen slightly to 2.9%
Home purchase demand will be under pressure. Property prices are tired from the beginning of the year. It is about 8%, and it is expected that the annual increase will narrow to 5%.
The Government has adjusted the proportion of public and private housing supply to seven to three ratios. Chuu Zhuowen estimates that private housing supply will decrease in the next few years and will have certain support for property prices. Qiu Zhuowen predicted in March this year that the annual property price may fall by 10%. It is based on the uncertainties in the Sino-US trade war, and the market did not expect the US to cut interest rates.
Second-hand trading has not seen the tide of selling
Qiu Zhuowen pointed out that after the social movement, the residential market slowed down noticeably. Buyers took a wait-and-see attitude and were not eager to make sales decisions. The owners did not have the pressure to make the second-hand trading quiet; the new ones were not too big. Changes, developers want to do business, intend to sell properties with their own needs, while buyers and luxury home buyers are more cautious, developers know that it is not appropriate to push the price. He continued that second-hand property prices were only 1% to 2% lower than the middle of the year, and the owners did not panic selling.
In terms of stock picking, Qiu Zhuowen believes that the valuation of real estate stocks is close to the historical low
As the social situation changes daily, it is recommended to buy shares with strong defensive degree. The shareholding ratio of Link (00823) is nearly 3%, which is relatively not too Poor, the management has started to buy back from the price of 83 yuan, the downside risk is not too big; the wealthy (00778) estate business is stable, the dividend yield is about 5.6 percent.
Huang Jianye, chairman of Midland Group (01200), said that the local property market was booming at the beginning of this year. However, it is only a short-lived one. Unless the Sino-US trade war and the political events in Hong Kong are resolved quickly, property prices will peak in the short term and are expected to be high this year. It fell by about 5%, and some units eager to sell have already cut prices by more than 10%.