DBS Hong Kong real estate industry analyst Qiu Zhuowen said that local property prices will increase by 8% from the year-to-date, and the collection will be narrowed to 5% at the end of the year
He pointed out that due to demonstrations, Sino-US trade wars and the depreciation of the renminbi, both affecting Hong Kong’s economy and unemployment rate, it is difficult to estimate the impact of a single factor. However, as we have seen, the activeness of the first-hand building is sustained by developers who have to pay for sales. Second-hand The owner did not see any pressure.
At the same time, he pointed out that the land-sharing pilot scheme launched last year has yet to be implemented in detail
The original intention of the plan is to fill the gap between public and private housing from the June 4th to the seven-three ratio. However, the current meeting is suspended, and the details are complicated, involving the government and real estate. It is difficult to discuss the business relationship at the present time. It is also difficult to estimate the delay. However, it is believed that the supply will have a certain impact on property prices after four to five years.
Retail office rents are under pressure
Qiu Zhuowen said that due to the impact of de-cycling and the increase in trade friction between China and the United States, it is believed that office rents in Central have peaked. It is expected that office rents in Hong Kong will be flat this year. Central A-class office rents will have a chance to fall, with a low number of units. If the vacancy rate continues to rise, the owners or developers may face pressure to reduce rents, which means that they will continue to be optimistic about the eastern office market in the future.
Qiu Zhuowen said that social movements and the depreciation of the renminbi have all affected retail sales. Hong Kong’s retail sales have expanded since June, but it is believed that there will be little impact on the renewal of rentals. Therefore, it is believed that the biggest impact on shopping malls will be the rental performance. However, if the retail sales continue to deteriorate, it will eventually lead to the closing of the store. The owners will face pressure to reduce rents, which may affect the rents next year.