The Sino-US trade war and the political and political situation are not stable, and the “Jipu tide” has emerged in the core shopping district
According to the estate agent data, there were a total of 481 restaurants in Tsim Sha Tsui, Mong Kok, Causeway Bay and Central, which increased by nearly 20% year-on-year. The report also predicts that the overall number of gems will rise to more than 600 next year, creating a record high. Some estate agents estimate that there will be an opportunity to return to the 2006-2007 level.
The market has been weakened by SARS.
The devaluation rate in Causeway Bay is nearly 10%
From July to August, the Midland Industrial and Commercial Department conducted a survey of 156 streets and 7,456 street shops in the above-mentioned core areas. It found that the number of Jipu shops was 73 per year, and the vacancy rate was about 6.5%, which was also 0.9 percentage points higher than last year. Among them, the vacancy rate in Causeway Bay was 9.4%, which was the hardest hit.
Huang Hancheng, the chief executive of the bank, said that the original forecast of core area rents could increase by 10% at the beginning of this year, but the market conditions deteriorated. It is estimated that as of the end of this year, the rent trend will fall by 10 to 15%. By the end of next year, the cumulative decline in rents will reach 30%, and the rent will be returned more than a decade ago.
As retail market conditions turn to severe, retailers are becoming more cautious. Lu Zhanhao, director of Midland Wangpu, expects that the number of new leases will be greatly reduced. It is said that the current market conditions have declined in SARS. It is expected that the overall vacancy rate in the four districts will rise to 8 to 9% next year, which means the number of Jipu will increase by another 120. Up to 200 rooms. More than 600 geisha shops will appear on the market, and there will be a chance to challenge the high of 664 JI shops in 1700.
The number of vacant shops in various districts has increased significantly. According to Chen Haozhen, an analyst at the Research Department of the Industrial and Commercial Services Department of the United States, the vacancy rate in Causeway Bay is the highest. There are about 102 JI shops in the district, while there are about 131 JI shops in the Central District. Times, up to 9.1%. There were about 102 and 146 in Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok respectively, with vacancy rates of about 6.8% and 4.3% respectively. The bank expects the vacancy rate to rise further next year, and Causeway Bay has a better chance of rising to 10.5 to 11%.
Catering industry merchants account for 1/4
As for the business category, the current four core areas are mainly catering, accounting for 25.2%, involving 1,880 shops, up 1.26% year-on-year. However, the bank expects the number of the industry to fall next year. As for clothing, footwear and leather goods, it is the second largest category, involving about 889 shops, accounting for 11.9% of the total merchants in the four districts. For luxury brands such as watches, jewellery and luxury decorations, it accounts for 5.6%.
Agent: Fuping 40% still difficult to rent out
In fact, there will be changes in the types of shops in Causeway Bay Street shops. Mr. Zhuang Langwen, Senior Regional Sales Director of the Central Plains (Industry and Commerce) Department of Commerce, said that the number of vacant shops in the area from Canal Road West to Yee Wo Street in Causeway Bay has increased by about 10 before the occurrence of social activities in June. There are also many upstairs catering. The shop was closed during this period, and some of the original Ginza-style commercial buildings that specialize in bars and specialty restaurants began to change their deployment, and they were suspected of introducing beauty, fitness and other businesses.
Real estate agents believe that the retail market has entered a cold winter. Sheraton Wangpu Huang Weiwen said that the number of tourists has decreased significantly, and the business of businesses has fallen by a few. Although the attitude of renters has softened, tenants have become more cautious. At present, the rent level is not even flat. Even if the owners are willing to reduce rents by 30% to 40%, they may not be able to rent out. At the same time, he expects foreign chain brands to continue to shop and reduce the size of the port. The original brand planned to enter Hong Kong also has the opportunity to temporarily suspend the plan.
As for the veteran investor Cai Zhizhong, social turmoil has a greater impact on the first-line shops in the tourist area. There are one or two demonstrations a week, and some shops cannot do business. The situation is very bad. However, he thinks that unlike the three years of SARS, the unemployment rate was high and the public had no money to spend. At present, most people have work, but the consumption intention is not big. I believe that social chaos can be settled at the end of the year.