Internal and external factors have pinched, and Hong Kong entered a technical recession last year
Fan Limin, co-head of the Asia-Pacific region of HSBC (00005) Economic Research, pointed out that Hong Kong ’s economy continued to be dragged down by the tourism and retail industry in the first half of this year. The GDP forecast was revised downward from 1.5% to 0.7%, which is milder than the negative 1.9% of last year.
Estimated significant rebound next year, growth of 2.8%
Fan Limin explained that although the retail sales continued to deteriorate, the government is continuously launching a series of fiscal expenditures and bail-out policies to stimulate public consumption. It is believed that the third quarter is expected to gradually return to the track. With a low base, it is expected that the third It will record a growth of 1.9% in the quarter and 4.4% in the fourth quarter, and it will rebound significantly next year, with an increase of 2.8%.
Lin Chuanying, Asia Pacific director of securities strategy, also pointed out that the transaction in the second-hand property market in Hong Kong and Japan has fallen significantly and property prices have fluctuated, but the low interest rate environment can support property prices. In addition, the liquidity of Hong Kong banks is sufficient, and the property market has not faced structural challenges It is believed that there is not much room for further decline. It is expected that the overall property price will fall by 5% to 10% throughout the year.
The first phase of the China-US trade agreement has been successfully signed. Lin Chuanying believes that the agreement will benefit the technology industry. The introduction of 5G will bring strong growth momentum. The technology industry’s profit growth will reach 30% this year. The chances reached before the US election are small, and investors need to be aware of the risks involved.
People’s Bank of China’s economic stability is expected to continue to adopt loose policies
Qu Hongbin, co-head of Asia-Pacific Economic Research and chief economist of Greater China, described the agreement as a “multi-win” result, which helped to reduce the uncertainty that has plagued the world to a certain extent, but reminded that its role is limited and needs to be noted The agreement has not completely eliminated the implemented tariffs, and China’s export trade will continue to be under pressure in the future.
Qu Hongbin continued that the PBOC will reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points from January 6 and release more than 800 billion yuan. It is expected that the central bank will continue to adopt loose fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy. It is believed that the PBOC will resume again in the middle of the year. The RRR cut, and the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) and tax cuts, etc., have continued to rise in domestic domestic demand. China ’s GDP has increased by about 5.8% this year, and the RMB / USD exchange rate was 7.15 at the end of the year.